What happened
The ceasefire that took effect on 10 October 2025 set the so-called 'yellow line' — the boundary marking how far Israeli forces would withdraw in its first phase — at roughly 53% of Gaza's territory remaining under Israeli control, with further withdrawal contingent on Hamas disarming and handing governance to the transitional National Committee for the Administration of Gaza under UN Security Council Resolution 2803. Neither side has fully held to that bargain: Hamas has not disarmed, and Israel has not withdrawn to the agreed line — it has, by Netanyahu's own admission, expanded beyond it to roughly 60% of the strip.
The 'imminent threat' justification for near-daily strikes during a nominal ceasefire is difficult to independently verify given Israel's continued restriction of independent press access to Gaza (see the separate press-freedom entry in this file) — the same evidentiary problem that has recurred throughout the war. Gaza's health ministry, whose casualty figures have proven broadly reliable in retrospective UN and academic reviews over the course of the war despite Israeli disputes of specific individual incidents, put the ceasefire-period death toll at 880 as of May 2026, bringing the war's total to nearly 73,000.
Nickolay Mladenov, the international Board of Peace's high representative overseeing implementation, said in May 2026 that the plan was 'paralysed,' attributing the stalemate to both parties — Hamas's non-disarmament and Israel's territorial expansion beyond the agreed line — rather than to either alone. With an Israeli election expected in September 2026, several Israeli political analysts and Al Jazeera's own reporting suggested Netanyahu had incentives to delay full de-escalation until after the vote, given his governing coalition's dependence on hardline partners who have publicly opposed further withdrawal.